As more than 1.4 million Namibians voted on 27 November in presidential and parliamentary elections, the question on many people’s minds is whether the ruling party, South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO), will succumb to the fate of former liberation movements and long-ruling parties in Southern Africa.
In May, South Africa’s ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), recorded its worst performance since coming to power in 1994, forcing it into a national unity government with right-wingers. Meanwhile, to Namibia’s east, the Botswana Democratic Party, also of the independence era, was sent packing on 30 October after 58 years.
SWAPO, the only ruling party Namibians have known since attaining independence in 1990, faces what many have described as its most challenging test at the polls. A sluggish economy and 43 per cent unemployment among 15- to 34-year-olds—with 18- to 35-year-olds making up 42 per cent of the electorate—have pushed many Namibians away from the ruling party. Young people are also unlikely to vote for SWAPO solely based on the party’s liberation credentials, as has been the case with older generations. SWAPO candidate Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah has promised to create 500,000 new jobs to win them over.
What could save SWAPO from the jaws of defeat is the opposition’s fragmentation, with 14 candidates having thrown their hats in the ring, potentially splitting the opposition vote and enabling Nandi-Ndaitwah to reach the threshold of 50 per cent plus one vote. A runoff election will occur if no one reaches that threshold, which would be unprecedented for the country.
In the 2019 elections, SWAPO candidate Hage Geingob (1941-2024), who died earlier this year, amassed 56 per cent of the vote, a significant drop from the 87 per cent he won five years earlier.
Sources:
https://www.voanews.com/a/namibia-may-elect-its-first-female-president-this-week/7875727.
html
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy5z9enx0do
https://www.namibian.com.na/well-done-majority-of-namibians-registered-to-vote
https://www.namibian.com.na/swapo-expels-itula-from-party/
https://x.com/hon_mugari/status/1859952562893623797
https://www.news24.com/news24/namibia-vows-to-change-status-quo-of-white-farm-ownership-20191208
https://www.bon.com.na/Publications/Annual-Reports-2023/PART-B.aspx